METALCON welcomed economist Alex Chausovsky of The Bundy Group to the keynote stage in Las Vegas on Oct. 22 for an insightful address focused on navigating the next phase of economic and industrial transformation.
An internationally recognized economics and markets expert, speaker and strategy consultant, Chausovsky discussed a shift in mindset from managing uncertainty to embracing complexity under the theme “Connecting Data to Action.”
“We’ve been through similar challenges before,” he said, referencing the pandemic era. “Now, we can project with confidence that we will figure this out. We can do this together. We have the mindset to get it done.”
Economic Strength and Global Context
Chausovsky underscored the continued dominance of the U.S. economy, noting that at $30 trillion, it represents more than a quarter of global GDP and remains one-third larger than China’s $20 trillion economy. “We are not going to be overtaken with our economy,” he affirmed, adding that even New York and parts of New Jersey together exceed Russia’s $2.2 trillion economy.
He highlighted that since 1980, the U.S. has maintained a consistent 26 percent share of global GDP, reinforcing the nation’s enduring economic influence. However, he cautioned that the U.S. must ensure its global partners do not gain competitive ground—a sentiment aligned with the current Trump administration’s policy goals.
“Our biggest vulnerability is our allies, “said Chausovsky. The concern is that our allies are being pushed closer to our adversaries—closer to China and Russia.”
Global Trade, Tariffs, and Economic Trends
Chausovsky talked about Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) as a key factor in understanding China’s internal advantage—its ability to afford more goods and services for the same amount of money. He cautioned that, unless we act strategically, China’s production capacity will continue to outpace ours.
He addressed trade relations with Canada and ongoing tariff impacts, clarifying misconceptions about an impending recession:
“We are not in a recession; we are not even headed toward one,” he emphasized.
According to Chausovsky, while 37 percent of tariffs have been passed to U.S. consumers, 9 percent have been absorbed by companies. The overall economic impact, he said, remains limited, with tariffs typically taking 12–18 months to fully register.
Looking Ahead: 2026 and Beyond
Chausovsky forecasted a flat economy for 2026, with minimal growth expected due to restrictive interest rates. He added, pessimism among CEOs is equal to that seen during COVID and has persisted since April 2 (Liberation Day)—reflecting no growth and no contraction.
“You want to be conservative and tighten the belt,” he advised. “Unless we can get out of our own way, it will tread.”
“The key takeaway for 2026 is to maintain profitability and make sure you have money to reinvest into the business,” he said. Chausovsky then posed the question, “What can you do?” He said, “Increase prices or increase your market share.”
He encouraged leaders to:
- Retain employees, as workforce participation remains strong.
- Budget 3–4 percent for cost-of-living increases.
- Communicate more frequently with suppliers, ideally moving from quarterly to monthly updates.
- Diversify pricing strategies—either by increasing prices or capturing greater market share.
He also cited the importance of legal immigration to sustain the labor force, warning that without progress, workforce shortages could begin as early as 2027.
Closing his address, Chausovsky reiterated his core message for the metal construction industry: while today’s economic landscape is complex, waiting on the sidelines is not an option. He acknowledged concerns that tariffs could push the economy toward recession but affirmed that this is not the case. Instead, he urged industry professionals to stay informed, remain agile and position their businesses to succeed amid evolving market dynamics.
The outlook may be complex, but it remains one that the industry is fully capable of navigating—momentum that will continue as the conversation moves forward at METALCON 2026.
